| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 | |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 | |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| NY | 13 | 13 (89%) | 78 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 97549 | 10 |
| NY | 14 | 14 (57%) | 75 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 44682 | 10 |
| NY | 15 | 15 (64%) | 79 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 65351 | 10 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 34 | 34 (86%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 88 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 21415 | 10 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| CA | 37 | 37 (69%) | 74 | 89 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 17265 | 10 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 43 | 43 (72%) | 74 | 85 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 92 | Err | 20 | 1 | 13830 | 10 |
| CA | 44 | 44 (62%) | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 11495 | 10 |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI | 1 | 01 (100%) | 63 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 8541 | 10 |
| HI | 2 | 02 (99%) | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 68 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 808 | 4 |
| NY | 6 | 06 (81%) | 72 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 75 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 42610 | 10 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| CA | 14 | 15 (86%) | 67 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 5491 | 9 |
| CA | 15 | 14 (82%) | 70 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 10116 | 10 |
| CA | 17 | 17 (90%) | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 77 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 7865 | 9 |
| CA | 28 | 27 (87%) | 67 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 6661 | 9 |
| CA | 45 | 66 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 72 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 8207 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 3 | 07 (86%) | 61 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 6474 | 9 |
| IL | 4 | 70 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 74 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 10759 | 10 | |
| CA | 13 | 16 (53%) | 49 | 55 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 74 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 1174 | 5 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| CA | 18 | 20 (55%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4444 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| CA | 25 | 36 (72%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 72 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1538 | 6 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| CA | 29 | 29 (87%) | 68 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 12713 | 10 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| CA | 31 | 32 (92%) | 65 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 7881 | 9 |
| CA | 33 | 31 (75%) | 66 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 5505 | 9 |
| TX | 33 | 33 (71%) | 62 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 84 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 4793 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| CA | 35 | 35 (80%) | 65 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6262 | 9 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 38 | 38 (63%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 6992 | 9 |
| CA | 39 | 41 (95%) | 62 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 78 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 4414 | 8 |
| CA | 42 | 68 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 13960 | 10 | |
| CA | 46 | 46 (80%) | 67 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 83 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 12167 | 10 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| NY | 7 | 71 | 84 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 53502 | 10 | |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| NJ | 8 | 08 (93%) | 69 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 26364 | 10 |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 3 | 03 (94%) | 81 | 92 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 20257 | 10 |
| GA | 4 | 04 (71%) | 74 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 72 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2625 | 7 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| GA | 5 | 05 (86%) | 74 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 4065 | 8 |
| NY | 5 | 05 (86%) | 79 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 26638 | 10 |
| IL | 7 | 07 (84%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 44 | 9 | 13838 | 10 |
| MD | 7 | 07 (72%) | 77 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 5186 | 9 |
| NY | 8 | 08 (75%) | 78 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 43513 | 10 |
| NY | 9 | 09 (71%) | 78 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 69 | 9 | 35 | 7 | 55467 | 10 |
| TX | 9 | 09 (65%) | 69 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 86 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 4853 | 9 |
| NJ | 10 | 10 (80%) | 78 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 13538 | 10 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| TX | 18 | 18 (77%) | 66 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 4434 | 8 |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| FL | 24 | 24 (69%) | 72 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 82 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 9137 | 10 |
| TX | 30 | 30 (84%) | 66 | 78 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 3529 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL | 1 | 01 (66%) | 77 | 73 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 31 | 6 | 4168 | 8 |
| MO | 1 | 01 (90%) | 71 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4239 | 8 |
| NC | 1 | 01 (54%) | 54 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 50 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 235 | 1 |
| GA | 2 | 02 (85%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 57 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 297 | 2 |
| IL | 2 | 02 (77%) | 67 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 1512 | 6 |
| MS | 2 | 02 (90%) | 53 | 64 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 66 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| VA | 3 | 03 (81%) | 69 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 27 | 4 | 3790 | 8 |
| MD | 4 | 04 (69%) | 80 | 82 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 36 | 7 | 4185 | 8 |
| VA | 4 | 04 (78%) | 62 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1295 | 5 |
| MD | 5 | 05 (92%) | 64 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 62 | 9 | 36 | 7 | 1098 | 5 |
| SC | 6 | 06 (77%) | 57 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| AL | 7 | 07 (83%) | 61 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 424 | 3 |
| TN | 9 | 09 (88%) | 76 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 71 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 2145 | 7 |
| OH | 11 | 11 (71%) | 73 | 80 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 5014 | 9 |
| MI | 12 | 13 (54%) | 69 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 4741 | 9 |
| GA | 13 | 13 (85%) | 75 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 81 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 1724 | 6 |
| MI | 13 | 70 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 60 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4965 | 9 | |
| FL | 20 | 20 (73%) | 69 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 76 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 5039 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| VA | 1 | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 780 | 4 | |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| MN | 3 | 03 (94%) | 61 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 49 | 10 | 2102 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| MN | 4 | 04 (100%) | 65 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 3319 | 8 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| MI | 6 | 12 (57%) | 55 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 28 | 4 | 50 | 10 | 1839 | 6 |
| MA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 75 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 4559 | 8 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| MI | 11 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 48 | 9 | 2921 | 7 | |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 1 | 01 (100%) | 66 | 79 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 7527 | 9 |
| CO | 2 | 02 (78%) | 51 | 68 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 56 | 10 | 945 | 5 |
| NC | 2 | 04 (72%) | 65 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 58 | 10 | 2277 | 7 |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| CT | 4 | 04 (100%) | 63 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 3006 | 7 |
| IL | 5 | 05 (57%) | 69 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 63 | 10 | 10588 | 10 |
| MA | 5 | 05 (95%) | 75 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 59 | 10 | 5370 | 9 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| GA | 6 | 06 (54%) | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 33 | 5 | 57 | 10 | 1609 | 6 |
| WA | 7 | 07 (96%) | 80 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 63 | 10 | 9374 | 10 |
| MD | 8 | 08 (75%) | 60 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 54 | 10 | 2318 | 7 |
| VA | 8 | 08 (91%) | 70 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 48 | 8 | 64 | 10 | 8520 | 10 |
| IL | 9 | 09 (69%) | 70 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 8332 | 10 |
| NY | 10 | 71 | 87 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 59 | 10 | 66619 | 10 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| CA | 11 | 12 (92%) | 70 | 88 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 63 | 10 | 26597 | 10 |
| NJ | 11 | 11 (77%) | 55 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 56 | 10 | 3018 | 7 |
| VA | 11 | 11 (68%) | 64 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 66 | 10 | 4091 | 8 |
| NY | 12 | 12 (60%) | 70 | 86 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 79 | Err | 102616 | Err |
| CA | 16 | 18 (69%) | 66 | 76 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 5440 | 9 |
| TX | 24 | 52 | 40 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 35 | 5 | 51 | 10 | 3857 | 8 | |
| CA | 36 | 33 (65%) | 68 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 64 | 10 | 10377 | 10 |
| TX | 37 | 53 | 76 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 4457 | 8 | |
| CA | 50 | 52 (54%) | 64 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 58 | 10 | 5672 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 1 | 01 (74%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 51 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 1672 | 6 |
| NY | 3 | 03 (64%) | 65 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 42 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 6713 | 9 |
| NJ | 6 | 06 (89%) | 63 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 55 | 8 | 40 | 8 | 5104 | 9 |
| WA | 9 | 09 (84%) | 77 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 39 | 8 | 4982 | 9 |
| CA | 10 | 11 (61%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 53 | 10 | 3109 | 8 |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| CA | 19 | 54 | 69 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 48 | 8 | 44 | 9 | 2303 | 7 | |
| TX | 22 | 22 (75%) | 49 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 55 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 1362 | 5 |
| CA | 24 | 24 (85%) | 56 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 46 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 2496 | 7 |
| CA | 26 | 26 (80%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 54 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 3116 | 8 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| CA | 40 | 45 (64%) | 61 | 47 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 48 | 8 | 49 | 10 | 4390 | 8 |
| CA | 47 | 48 (63%) | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 7 | 56 | 10 | 6215 | 9 |
| CA | 51 | 53 (51%) | 64 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 6383 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 2 | 02 (96%) | 72 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 25 | 3 | 15355 | 10 |
| WI | 4 | 04 (88%) | 71 | 75 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 31 | 6 | 7033 | 9 |
| GA | 7 | 07 (58%) | 66 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 2798 | 7 |
| IN | 7 | 07 (74%) | 64 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 50 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3268 | 8 |
| MA | 7 | 07 (97%) | 82 | 83 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 47 | 9 | 19932 | 10 |
| TX | 7 | 63 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 70 | 9 | 48 | 10 | 7491 | 9 | |
| FL | 10 | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 61 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 3966 | 8 | |
| CA | 12 | 13 (100%) | 72 | 91 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 51 | 10 | 11703 | 10 |
| NC | 12 | 12 (72%) | 67 | 64 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 37 | 7 | 2038 | 7 |
| NY | 16 | 16 (75%) | 72 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 58 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 10107 | 10 |
| FL | 25 | 23 (78%) | 57 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 66 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4880 | 9 |
| TX | 32 | 61 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 64 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 6418 | 9 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 1 | 01 (97%) | 59 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 39 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 2028 | 7 |
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| CT | 3 | 03 (96%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 6 | 37 | 8 | 2507 | 7 |
| NJ | 3 | 03 (56%) | 51 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 34 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 1558 | 6 |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| FL | 5 | 04 (86%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 1871 | 6 |
| PA | 5 | 05 (90%) | 68 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 5232 | 9 |
| TN | 5 | 51 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 28 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 1030 | 5 | |
| AL | 6 | 06 (90%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 593 | 3 |
| VA | 7 | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 46 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 1036 | 5 | |
| GA | 11 | 11 (88%) | 48 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 1468 | 6 |
| NC | 13 | 02 (59%) | 54 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 38 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 737 | 4 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| FL | 22 | 21 (92%) | 55 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 4256 | 8 |
| FL | 23 | 22 (89%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 42 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4864 | 9 |
| NY | 25 | 25 (94%) | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2171 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| GA | 12 | 12 (85%) | 44 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 45 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 263 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| FL | 8 | 08 (100%) | 43 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1580 | 6 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| PA | 7 | 07 (90%) | 50 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1692 | 6 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| GA | 9 | 09 (68%) | 32 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 413 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| OH | 15 | 52 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1442 | 6 | |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| MS | 3 | 03 (91%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 160 | 1 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 1 | 01 (91%) | 54 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 908 | 4 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| WI | 1 | 01 (85%) | 52 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 1174 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| KS | 2 | 02 (73%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 295 | 2 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| MO | 3 | 03 (58%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 33 | 6 | 518 | 3 |
| IN | 4 | 04 (89%) | 42 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 428 | 3 |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| OH | 13 | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 1890 | 6 | |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| NY | 19 | 43 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 18 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 286 | 2 | |
| NY | 22 | 24 (60%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1079 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| MD | 1 | 01 (60%) | 48 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 654 | 4 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| PA | 12 | 18 (86%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 24 | 3 | 38 | 8 | 3147 | 8 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| FL | 21 | 18 (98%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 32 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1723 | 6 |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 1 | 01 (91%) | 35 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 101 | 1 |
| SC | 3 | 03 (95%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 26 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 245 | 2 |
| AR | 4 | 04 (86%) | 36 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| TN | 4 | 04 (83%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 280 | 2 |
| NC | 5 | 05 (83%) | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 24 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 335 | 2 |
| FL | 6 | 06 (63%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 647 | 4 |
| TN | 6 | 06 (72%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 344 | 2 |
| MI | 8 | 05 (80%) | 48 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 24 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 832 | 4 |
| NC | 8 | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 365 | 2 | |
| OH | 8 | 08 (64%) | 50 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 29 | 5 | 1280 | 5 |
| TN | 8 | 08 (82%) | 36 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 25 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 201 | 1 |
| OH | 9 | 05 (50%) | 49 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 1059 | 5 |
| MI | 10 | 09 (66%) | 56 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 24 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 3884 | 8 |
| NC | 10 | 10 (56%) | 41 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 367 | 2 |
| GA | 14 | 14 (90%) | 35 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 454 | 3 |
| IL | 17 | 17 (71%) | 49 | 54 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 28 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 959 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| NC | 4 | 57 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 42 | 8 | 886 | 4 | |
| NY | 4 | 04 (84%) | 68 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 47 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 8189 | 10 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NJ | 12 | 12 (87%) | 60 | 65 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 56 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 2928 | 7 |
| FL | 14 | 14 (67%) | 57 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 51 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4041 | 8 |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| OK | 1 | 01 (96%) | 44 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1685 | 6 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH | 1 | 01 (69%) | 60 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 30 | 4 | 44 | 9 | 2511 | 7 |
| SC | 1 | 01 (91%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 29 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 894 | 4 |
| WA | 1 | 01 (65%) | 68 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 37 | 6 | 48 | 10 | 3514 | 8 |
| NE | 2 | 02 (97%) | 58 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 28 | 4 | 40 | 8 | 2541 | 7 |
| TX | 2 | 48 | 36 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 1887 | 6 | |
| MD | 3 | 57 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 53 | 10 | 1918 | 6 | |
| OH | 3 | 03 (67%) | 69 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 41 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 4662 | 9 |
| TX | 3 | 03 (76%) | 48 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 1833 | 6 |
| CO | 5 | 05 (100%) | 58 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 2267 | 7 |
| MN | 5 | 05 (100%) | 69 | 81 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 35 | 5 | 48 | 9 | 6545 | 9 |
| NJ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 39 | 6 | 51 | 10 | 2656 | 7 |
| CO | 6 | 06 (84%) | 65 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 4651 | 9 |
| IL | 10 | 10 (77%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 1967 | 7 |
| TX | 10 | 39 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 41 | 7 | 37 | 8 | 476 | 3 | |
| VA | 10 | 10 (73%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 52 | 10 | 1528 | 6 |
| IL | 11 | 59 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 33 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 2011 | 7 | |
| NC | 14 | 12 (50%) | 61 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 40 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 2184 | 7 |
| NY | 17 | 17 (72%) | 59 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 1852 | 6 |
| TX | 21 | 21 (76%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 783 | 4 |
| TX | 26 | 26 (74%) | 45 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 40 | 6 | 43 | 9 | 1462 | 6 |
| CA | 30 | 28 (85%) | 67 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 43 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 11776 | 10 |
| CA | 32 | 30 (77%) | 65 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 50 | 10 | 6861 | 9 |
| TX | 38 | 52 | 38 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 47 | 7 | 49 | 10 | 3467 | 8 | |
| CA | 49 | 49 (90%) | 60 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 39 | 6 | 45 | 9 | 3607 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM | 2 | 02 (73%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 364 | 2 |
| IL | 3 | 69 | 71 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 57 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 9512 | 10 | |
| NM | 3 | 03 (81%) | 47 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 62 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 119 | 1 |
| AZ | 7 | 03 (73%) | 50 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 67 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 1633 | 6 |
| CA | 7 | 06 (56%) | 63 | 68 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 65 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 4527 | 8 |
| CA | 8 | 64 | 77 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 73 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 4073 | 8 | |
| CA | 9 | 09 (75%) | 57 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 67 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3261 | 8 |
| FL | 9 | 09 (71%) | 50 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 68 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 1843 | 6 |
| NJ | 9 | 09 (83%) | 66 | 62 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 59 | 9 | 32 | 6 | 10010 | 10 |
| TX | 15 | 15 (67%) | 46 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 82 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 964 | 5 |
| TX | 16 | 16 (94%) | 56 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 87 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 3295 | 8 |
| TX | 20 | 20 (84%) | 59 | 67 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 80 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 5224 | 9 |
| CA | 21 | 58 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 79 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2924 | 7 | |
| CA | 22 | 21 (57%) | 53 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2398 | 7 |
| TX | 23 | 23 (79%) | 41 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 69 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 324 | 2 |
| FL | 26 | 25 (78%) | 57 | 44 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 80 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 5177 | 9 |
| CA | 27 | 25 (80%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 63 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2692 | 7 |
| FL | 27 | 27 (82%) | 61 | 53 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 83 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 9355 | 10 |
| FL | 28 | 26 (92%) | 56 | 52 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 85 | 10 | 29 | 5 | 4714 | 9 |
| TX | 28 | 28 (62%) | 50 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 81 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1424 | 5 |
| TX | 29 | 29 (82%) | 61 | 72 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 90 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 4778 | 9 |
| TX | 34 | 34 (75%) | 50 | 62 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 90 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 1373 | 5 |
| TX | 35 | 35 (66%) | 55 | 73 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 70 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 2657 | 7 |
| CA | 52 | 51 (69%) | 69 | 70 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 85 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 8603 | 10 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NJ | 2 | 02 (90%) | 42 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 28 | 4 | 891 | 4 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| MI | 3 | 02 (50%) | 53 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 35 | 7 | 1930 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| OK | 5 | 05 (79%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 1069 | 5 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| FL | 16 | 16 (80%) | 47 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 1969 | 7 |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| FL | 7 | 07 (62%) | 47 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1877 | 6 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| FL | 11 | 42 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 985 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | 1 | 00 (100%) | 43 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 35 | 7 | 128 | 1 |
| NE | 1 | 01 (89%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 1017 | 5 |
| RI | 1 | 01 (99%) | 66 | 66 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 3148 | 8 |
| MT | 2 | 00 (100%) | 42 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 83 | 1 |
| RI | 2 | 02 (98%) | 56 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 23 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1529 | 6 |
| AZ | 4 | 09 (69%) | 55 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 5464 | 9 |
| TX | 4 | 04 (55%) | 42 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 39 | 8 | 729 | 4 |
| UT | 4 | 04 (83%) | 45 | 30 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 2218 | 7 |
| AZ | 5 | 05 (78%) | 49 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 30 | 4 | 37 | 8 | 3137 | 8 |
| OR | 6 | 05 (58%) | 58 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 29 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 1910 | 6 |
| WA | 10 | 10 (93%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 2330 | 7 |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 1 | 01 (95%) | 54 | 63 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 3026 | 8 |
| NY | 2 | 02 (73%) | 61 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 41 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3784 | 8 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 12 | 12 (92%) | 47 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 2001 | 7 |
| IL | 14 | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 31 | 6 | 1487 | 6 | |
| TX | 14 | 14 (88%) | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 44 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1026 | 5 |
| FL | 15 | 49 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 2056 | 7 | |
| TX | 17 | 17 (54%) | 40 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 43 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 467 | 3 |
| NY | 18 | 18 (70%) | 54 | 52 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 34 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 836 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| TX | 25 | 42 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 900 | 4 | |
| TX | 31 | 31 (79%) | 41 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 791 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | 1 | 01 (52%) | 55 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 5600 | 9 |
| NV | 3 | 03 (64%) | 57 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 53 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 4907 | 9 |
| CA | 4 | 05 (55%) | 52 | 67 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 45 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 1752 | 6 |
| NV | 4 | 04 (83%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 58 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 2417 | 7 |
| WA | 4 | 04 (95%) | 46 | 40 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 43 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 498 | 3 |
| TX | 5 | 05 (61%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 48 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 883 | 4 |
| CA | 6 | 63 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 49 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 5118 | 9 | |
| TX | 6 | 44 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 749 | 4 | |
| CO | 8 | 07 (52%) | 57 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 44 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2473 | 7 |
| IL | 8 | 08 (66%) | 62 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 42 | 7 | 38 | 8 | 3634 | 8 |
| TX | 8 | 44 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 51 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 1160 | 5 | |
| NY | 11 | 11 (87%) | 66 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 46 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 19506 | 10 |
| TX | 11 | 11 (75%) | 44 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 52 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 892 | 4 |
| TX | 19 | 19 (93%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 46 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 393 | 3 |
| CA | 20 | 23 (52%) | 48 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 47 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 1383 | 5 |
| CA | 23 | 08 (85%) | 46 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 56 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 806 | 4 |
| TX | 27 | 27 (86%) | 41 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 59 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 653 | 4 |
| TX | 36 | 36 (73%) | 43 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 47 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 755 | 4 |
| CA | 41 | 42 (71%) | 53 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 52 | 8 | 28 | 5 | 1963 | 7 |
| CA | 48 | 50 (64%) | 52 | 41 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 43 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1818 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| ME | 1 | 01 (98%) | 49 | 57 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 9 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 403 | 3 |
| NH | 1 | 01 (100%) | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 11 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 709 | 4 |
| PA | 1 | 01 (93%) | 51 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 1681 | 6 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| CT | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 19 | 2 | 37 | 7 | 556 | 3 |
| NH | 2 | 02 (98%) | 48 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 11 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 303 | 2 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| IA | 3 | 03 (86%) | 56 | 49 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 18 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 638 | 3 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| NJ | 4 | 04 (62%) | 46 | 38 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 37 | 8 | 2141 | 7 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| IN | 5 | 05 (75%) | 48 | 41 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 17 | 2 | 38 | 8 | 962 | 5 |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| WI | 5 | 05 (85%) | 49 | 35 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 38 | 8 | 790 | 4 |
| MD | 6 | 06 (89%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 41 | 7 | 42 | 9 | 1042 | 5 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| MI | 7 | 08 (62%) | 47 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 18 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 751 | 4 |
| OH | 7 | 16 (65%) | 47 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 12 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1336 | 5 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| MA | 9 | 09 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 15 | 2 | 39 | 8 | 948 | 5 |
| PA | 17 | 17 (94%) | 50 | 55 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 16 | 2 | 41 | 8 | 1487 | 6 |
| FL | 19 | 19 (98%) | 45 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 26 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 1884 | 6 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1 | 01 (73%) | 36 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 332 | 2 |
| KS | 1 | 01 (83%) | 36 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 122 | 1 |
| UT | 1 | 01 (87%) | 40 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1187 | 5 |
| AZ | 2 | 01 (66%) | 32 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NV | 2 | 02 (98%) | 36 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 531 | 3 |
| UT | 2 | 02 (87%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 889 | 4 |
| WA | 2 | 02 (70%) | 56 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 27 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 1296 | 5 |
| AR | 3 | 03 (94%) | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 508 | 3 |
| CA | 3 | 04 (57%) | 44 | 46 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 38 | 8 | 688 | 4 |
| CO | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 151 | 1 |
| OK | 3 | 03 (74%) | 27 | 28 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 183 | 1 |
| KS | 4 | 04 (99%) | 45 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 636 | 3 |
| MI | 4 | 06 (65%) | 48 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 31 | 5 | 729 | 4 |
| OK | 4 | 04 (97%) | 34 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 457 | 3 |
| OR | 4 | 04 (91%) | 46 | 56 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 19 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 591 | 3 |
| CA | 5 | 44 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 37 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 921 | 4 | |
| OR | 5 | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 35 | 7 | 1172 | 5 | |
| KY | 6 | 06 (93%) | 45 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 19 | 2 | 34 | 7 | 831 | 4 |
| MN | 6 | 06 (90%) | 47 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 599 | 3 |
| WA | 6 | 06 (92%) | 51 | 57 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 25 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 905 | 4 |
| AZ | 8 | 08 (67%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 5 | 31 | 6 | 3415 | 8 |
| WA | 8 | 08 (76%) | 52 | 51 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 39 | 8 | 708 | 4 |
| AZ | 9 | 40 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 715 | 4 | |
| PA | 10 | 10 (96%) | 47 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 25 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 1354 | 5 |
| TX | 13 | 13 (83%) | 35 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 389 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 06 (74%) | 50 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 26 | 4 | 49 | 10 | 3134 | 8 |
| NY | 1 | 01 (68%) | 56 | 48 | Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D) | 26 | 3 | 45 | 9 | 1989 | 7 |
| OR | 1 | 01 (82%) | 61 | 69 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 4 | 45 | 9 | 2114 | 7 |
| CA | 2 | 02 (91%) | 45 | 74 | At-Risk (Moving away from D) | 32 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 742 | 4 |
| MA | 2 | 02 (87%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 26 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 1075 | 5 |
| MN | 2 | 02 (92%) | 53 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 21 | 3 | 41 | 8 | 1257 | 5 |
| MO | 2 | 02 (71%) | 49 | 45 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 14 | 2 | 47 | 9 | 1452 | 6 |
| WI | 2 | 02 (100%) | 51 | 71 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 18 | 2 | 44 | 9 | 793 | 4 |
| KS | 3 | 03 (92%) | 53 | 50 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 50 | 10 | 1711 | 6 |
| MA | 3 | 03 (96%) | 62 | 58 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 36 | 6 | 38 | 8 | 1905 | 6 |
| OR | 3 | 03 (96%) | 67 | 74 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 38 | 8 | 3603 | 8 |
| UT | 3 | 03 (83%) | 40 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 3 | 39 | 8 | 1051 | 5 |
| CO | 4 | 04 (66%) | 44 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 394 | 3 |
| MA | 4 | 04 (89%) | 62 | 59 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 19 | 2 | 46 | 9 | 2044 | 7 |
| PA | 4 | 04 (81%) | 52 | 60 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 21 | 3 | 46 | 9 | 1806 | 6 |
| CT | 5 | 05 (99%) | 54 | 53 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 33 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 1228 | 5 |
| AZ | 6 | 02 (69%) | 42 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 36 | 7 | 821 | 4 |
| IL | 6 | 64 | 54 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 25 | 3 | 43 | 9 | 4117 | 8 | |
| MA | 6 | 06 (96%) | 66 | 57 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 20 | 3 | 47 | 9 | 2347 | 7 |
| PA | 6 | 06 (98%) | 52 | 56 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 27 | 4 | 46 | 9 | 1501 | 6 |
| CO | 7 | 07 (59%) | 52 | 54 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 44 | 9 | 1467 | 6 |
| NJ | 7 | 07 (72%) | 46 | 48 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 27 | 4 | 51 | 10 | 1071 | 5 |
| NY | 20 | 20 (88%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 24 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 1559 | 6 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 43 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 393 | 3 |
| FL | 1 | 01 (100%) | 42 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 960 | 5 |
| GA | 1 | 01 (97%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 369 | 2 |
| IN | 1 | 01 (97%) | 54 | 58 | Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised) | 37 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 1514 | 6 |
| MS | 1 | 01 (100%) | 33 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 186 | 1 |
| TX | 1 | 01 (72%) | 37 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 36 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 242 | 2 |
| AL | 2 | 02 (93%) | 43 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 38 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 210 | 1 |
| AR | 2 | 02 (97%) | 51 | 42 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 31 | 4 | 31 | 6 | 564 | 3 |
| FL | 2 | 02 (64%) | 41 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 378 | 2 |
| MD | 2 | 02 (55%) | 65 | 55 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 44 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 4644 | 8 |
| SC | 2 | 02 (96%) | 49 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 36 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 642 | 4 |
| VA | 2 | 02 (65%) | 54 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 39 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 1363 | 5 |
| AL | 3 | 03 (96%) | 39 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 195 | 1 |
| FL | 3 | 03 (55%) | 38 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 346 | 2 |
| GA | 3 | 03 (88%) | 37 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 332 | 2 |
| KY | 3 | 03 (100%) | 61 | 61 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 34 | 5 | 32 | 6 | 2979 | 7 |
| NC | 3 | 03 (77%) | 43 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 1 |
| FL | 4 | 51 | 45 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 45 | 7 | 24 | 3 | 1203 | 5 | |
| MS | 4 | 04 (100%) | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 32 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 301 | 2 |
| SC | 4 | 04 (97%) | 50 | 39 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 33 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 1041 | 5 |
| AL | 5 | 05 (100%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 29 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 424 | 3 |
| MO | 5 | 05 (84%) | 60 | 63 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 38 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2574 | 7 |
| SC | 5 | 05 (95%) | 39 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 380 | 2 |
| VA | 5 | 05 (66%) | 42 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 30 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 215 | 1 |
| NC | 6 | 57 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 45 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 939 | 5 | |
| NC | 7 | 07 (64%) | 46 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 35 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 403 | 3 |
| SC | 7 | 07 (99%) | 40 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 33 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 312 | 2 |
| TN | 7 | 07 (55%) | 42 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 28 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 450 | 3 |
| GA | 8 | 08 (81%) | 37 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 39 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 196 | 1 |
| NC | 9 | 51 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 41 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 473 | 3 | |
| GA | 10 | 10 (71%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 34 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 342 | 2 |
| OH | 10 | 10 (90%) | 54 | 46 | Flippable (Strongly D-leaning) | 26 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 1725 | 6 |
| IL | 13 | 13 (54%) | 56 | 56 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 32 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 1359 | 5 |
| FL | 18 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 40 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 525 | 3 | |
| NY | 26 | 26 (89%) | 59 | 60 | Safe D (No near-term D risk) | 31 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 3694 | 8 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 2 | 02 (87%) | 36 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 269 | 2 |
| ME | 2 | 02 (94%) | 45 | 44 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 8 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| IN | 3 | 03 (96%) | 41 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 401 | 3 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| TN | 3 | 03 (90%) | 38 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 461 | 3 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| AL | 4 | 04 (94%) | 29 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 18 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 140 | 1 |
| MO | 4 | 04 (77%) | 32 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 176 | 1 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| OH | 5 | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 443 | 3 | |
| MO | 6 | 06 (83%) | 32 | 33 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 185 | 1 |
| VA | 6 | 06 (75%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 400 | 3 |
| MN | 8 | 08 (86%) | 35 | 47 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 106 | 1 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| FL | 12 | 12 (55%) | 37 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 22 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 994 | 5 |
| OH | 12 | 36 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 333 | 2 | |
| OH | 14 | 14 (61%) | 43 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 693 | 4 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN | 1 | 01 (90%) | 37 | 48 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 214 | 1 |
| ID | 2 | 02 (96%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 20 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 381 | 2 |
| IN | 2 | 02 (93%) | 42 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 540 | 3 |
| TN | 2 | 02 (95%) | 41 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 700 | 4 |
| WA | 3 | 03 (98%) | 50 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 22 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 851 | 4 |
| OH | 4 | 37 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 400 | 3 | |
| WA | 5 | 05 (97%) | 41 | 44 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 19 | 2 | 30 | 5 | 475 | 3 |
| IN | 6 | 06 (50%) | 43 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 719 | 4 |
| WI | 6 | 06 (97%) | 46 | 42 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MO | 7 | 07 (99%) | 38 | 29 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 436 | 3 |
| PA | 8 | 08 (92%) | 41 | 51 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 22 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 715 | 4 |
| WI | 8 | 08 (100%) | 45 | 43 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 13 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 433 | 3 |
| PA | 11 | 11 (97%) | 40 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 28 | 4 | 888 | 4 |
| FL | 13 | 13 (70%) | 50 | 46 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 23 | 3 | 31 | 6 | 3817 | 8 |
| FL | 17 | 17 (61%) | 41 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 1426 | 5 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA | 1 | 02 (87%) | 49 | 49 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 14 | 2 | 29 | 5 | 324 | 2 |
| ID | 1 | 01 (100%) | 36 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 17 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 307 | 2 |
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| MI | 1 | 01 (86%) | 37 | 41 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| IA | 2 | 01 (86%) | 49 | 47 | Toss-up (Down to the Wire) | 12 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 2 |
| MI | 2 | 37 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 147 | 1 | |
| OH | 2 | 02 (54%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 238 | 2 |
| OK | 2 | 02 (91%) | 25 | 27 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 35 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 96 | 1 |
| OR | 2 | 02 (92%) | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 21 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 123 | 1 |
| NE | 3 | 03 (92%) | 33 | 24 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 16 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| WI | 3 | 03 (98%) | 41 | 50 | Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D) | 9 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 195 | 1 |
| IA | 4 | 04 (80%) | 46 | 37 | Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised) | 15 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 189 | 1 |
| KY | 4 | 04 (94%) | 38 | 36 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 440 | 3 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| OH | 6 | 06 (55%) | 39 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 456 | 3 |
| MN | 7 | 07 (87%) | 35 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| WI | 7 | 07 (98%) | 40 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 91 | 1 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| MO | 8 | 08 (84%) | 31 | 26 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 1 |
| IN | 9 | 09 (70%) | 39 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 349 | 2 |
| MI | 9 | 10 (71%) | 42 | 37 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 475 | 3 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| NC | 11 | 11 (79%) | 36 | 45 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 15 | 2 | 31 | 6 | 226 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 | |
| PA | 15 | 15 (59%) | 27 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 177 | 1 |
| IL | 16 | 37 | 38 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 256 | 2 | |
| PA | 16 | 16 (90%) | 35 | 42 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 534 | 3 |
| NY | 21 | 21 (68%) | 41 | 43 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 150 | 1 |
| NY | 23 | 23 (58%) | 44 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 383 | 2 |
| NY | 24 | 41 | 40 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 253 | 2 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 |
| State | District | Was | Demographic Model (Blue Ripple) | Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting) | BR Stance | %Non-White | NW Quantile | %Grad-White | GOW Quantile | Pop/SqMile | Density Quantile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY | 1 | 01 (87%) | 34 | 35 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 14 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 142 | 1 |
| TN | 1 | 01 (94%) | 30 | 23 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 290 | 2 |
| WV | 1 | 03 (64%) | 30 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 151 | 1 |
| WV | 2 | 01 (67%) | 34 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 239 | 2 |
| KY | 5 | 05 (93%) | 30 | 31 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 6 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 100 | 1 |
| MI | 5 | 07 (65%) | 40 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 296 | 2 |
| IN | 8 | 08 (95%) | 38 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 271 | 2 |
| PA | 9 | 09 (65%) | 30 | 34 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 11 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 337 | 2 |
| VA | 9 | 09 (81%) | 32 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 13 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 149 | 1 |
| IL | 12 | 12 (53%) | 33 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 12 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 131 | 1 |
| PA | 13 | 13 (74%) | 30 | 30 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 279 | 2 |
| PA | 14 | 14 (76%) | 31 | 39 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 8 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 370 | 2 |
| IL | 15 | 32 | 32 | Safe R (No near-term D hope) | 9 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 144 | 1 |
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