HOME
June 27, 2022 (15:44:06)
Both Close
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
Demographically Favorable Toss-ups
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
Demographically Unfavorable Toss-ups
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
Demographically Vulnerable But Historically Safe D
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
Demographically Vulnerable But Historically Safe D
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
Demographically Surprising But Historically Safe D
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
Demographically Surprising But Historically Safe R
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
Safe/Safe
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
AZ-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
AZ-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CA-41
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CT-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
FL-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
IA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
IA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
KS-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
KY-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MA-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
MI-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
MI-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MI-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MI-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
MN-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
NC-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NC-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
NH-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NJ-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
NY-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
NY-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
OH-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
OR-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
PA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
PA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
PA-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
TX-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
VA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
VA-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
WA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
WA-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
WI-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
CA-40
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-45
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-49
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CO-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
FL-27
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL-28
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MI-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
NE-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
NY-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
NY-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
NY-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
OH-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
AZ-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
MN-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
MN-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MT-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
NJ-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
NY-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
PA-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
WI-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
CA-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
CT-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
FL-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
FL-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
GA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
IL-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
IN-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
MA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
MD-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
MI-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
MS-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
NC-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
NJ-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
NJ-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
NJ-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
NJ-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
NM-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
NM-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
NV-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
NV-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
NY-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
PA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
PA-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
TX-35
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-37
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
WA-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
WI-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
AZ-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
CA-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CA-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
FL-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
FL-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
FL-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
FL-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
FL-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
GA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
IA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
IN-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
KS-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MD-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
ME-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MN-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MO-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
NC-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
NE-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
NJ-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OH-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
SC-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
SC-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
TX-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
TX-22
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
TX-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
TX-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
UT-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
VA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
WA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
WI-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
WI-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
WI-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
CA-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
CA-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
ME-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NM-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
OR-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
AZ-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
PA-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
TX-28
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-34
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
OH-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
SC-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
AR-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
AZ-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
CA-48
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CO-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
FL-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
FL-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
GA-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
NH-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
NY-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
OH-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
OH-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
TN-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TX-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
TX-38
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
AL-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
AZ-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
CA-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA-27
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA-28
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-29
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-30
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-31
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-32
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-33
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-34
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-35
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-36
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA-37
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-38
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-39
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-42
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-43
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-44
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-46
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA-47
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-50
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CA-51
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
CA-52
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
CA-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
CA-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
CA-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CO-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
CO-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CT-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
CT-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
CT-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
FL-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
FL-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
FL-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
FL-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
GA-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
GA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
GA-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
GA-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
HI-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
HI-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
IL-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
IL-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
IL-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
IL-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
IL-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
IL-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
IL-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
IL-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
IL-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
IL-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
IL-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
IL-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
IN-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
KY-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
MA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
MA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
MA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
MA-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
MA-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
MA-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
MA-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
MD-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
MD-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
MD-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
MD-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MD-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
MD-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
MI-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
MI-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
MI-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
MN-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
MN-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
MN-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
MO-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
MO-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
NC-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
NC-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
NC-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
NC-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NC-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
NJ-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
NJ-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
NJ-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
NJ-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
NV-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
NY-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
NY-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
NY-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
NY-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
NY-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
NY1313 (89%)7892Safe D (No near-term D risk)83103369754910
NY1414 (57%)7581Safe D (No near-term D risk)80102644468210
NY1515 (64%)7988Safe D (No near-term D risk)90102016535110
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3434 (86%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)88102642141510
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
CA3737 (69%)7489Safe D (No near-term D risk)85102641726510
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA4343 (72%)7485Safe D (No near-term D risk)92Err2011383010
CA4444 (62%)7076Safe D (No near-term D risk)86102111149510
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
NY-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
NY-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
NY-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
NY-26
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
NY-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
NY-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
NY-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
HI101 (100%)6369Safe D (No near-term D risk)8410377854110
HI202 (99%)5768Safe D (No near-term D risk)6893058084
NY606 (81%)7268Safe D (No near-term D risk)75103784261010
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
CA1415 (86%)6772Safe D (No near-term D risk)72944954919
CA1514 (82%)7079Safe D (No near-term D risk)7094791011610
CA1717 (90%)6874Safe D (No near-term D risk)7710591078659
CA2827 (87%)6766Safe D (No near-term D risk)71945966619
CA456653Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)729367820710
NY-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
NY-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
NY-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
OH-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
OH-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
OR-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
OR-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
PA-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
PA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
PA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
PA-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
RI-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
RI-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
SC-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
TN-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
TX-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
TX-20
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-29
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-30
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
TX-32
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
TX-33
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ307 (86%)6176Safe D (No near-term D risk)761016164749
IL47074Safe D (No near-term D risk)7492221075910
CA1316 (53%)4955At-Risk (Moving away from D)741012111745
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
CA1820 (55%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)791023244448
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
CA2536 (72%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)72916115386
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
CA2929 (87%)6879Safe D (No near-term D risk)76102321271310
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
CA3132 (92%)6567Safe D (No near-term D risk)831024378819
CA3331 (75%)6663Safe D (No near-term D risk)801020155059
TX3333 (71%)6276Safe D (No near-term D risk)841021147939
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
CA3535 (80%)6565Safe D (No near-term D risk)831020162629
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA3838 (63%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)851029569929
CA3941 (95%)6263Safe D (No near-term D risk)781019144148
CA426874Safe D (No near-term D risk)79102431396010
CA4646 (80%)6767Safe D (No near-term D risk)83102121216710
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
NY77184Safe D (No near-term D risk)6394085350210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
NJ808 (93%)6977Safe D (No near-term D risk)7393772636410
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
TX-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA303 (94%)8192Safe D (No near-term D risk)6593982025710
GA404 (71%)7477Safe D (No near-term D risk)72940826257
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
GA505 (86%)7481Safe D (No near-term D risk)629511040658
NY505 (86%)7983Safe D (No near-term D risk)87102742663810
IL707 (84%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)6794491383810
MD707 (72%)7774Safe D (No near-term D risk)65938851869
NY808 (75%)7879Safe D (No near-term D risk)7193264351310
NY909 (71%)7878Safe D (No near-term D risk)6993575546710
TX909 (65%)6978Safe D (No near-term D risk)861030548539
NJ1010 (80%)7883Safe D (No near-term D risk)80103051353810
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
TX1818 (77%)6675Safe D (No near-term D risk)811026344348
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
FL2424 (69%)7280Safe D (No near-term D risk)8210284913710
TX3030 (84%)6678Safe D (No near-term D risk)791027435298
VA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
VA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
VA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
VA-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IL101 (66%)7773Safe D (No near-term D risk)63931641688
MO101 (90%)7179Safe D (No near-term D risk)56835742398
NC101 (54%)5455Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5082112351
GA202 (85%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)5782012972
IL202 (77%)6771Safe D (No near-term D risk)64923215126
MS202 (90%)5364Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6692011621
VA303 (81%)6968Safe D (No near-term D risk)58827437908
MD404 (69%)8082Safe D (No near-term D risk)801036741858
VA404 (78%)6267Safe D (No near-term D risk)55829512955
MD505 (92%)6468Safe D (No near-term D risk)62936710985
SC606 (77%)5766Safe D (No near-term D risk)5582644573
AL707 (83%)6168Safe D (No near-term D risk)6192324243
TN909 (88%)7674Safe D (No near-term D risk)71926421457
OH1111 (71%)7380Safe D (No near-term D risk)55830550149
MI1213 (54%)6975Safe D (No near-term D risk)53826347419
GA1313 (85%)7579Safe D (No near-term D risk)811029517246
MI137076Safe D (No near-term D risk)60920149659
FL2020 (73%)6979Safe D (No near-term D risk)761024350399
VA-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
WA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
VA14845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2744697804
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
MN303 (94%)6158Safe D (No near-term D risk)243491021027
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
MN404 (100%)6569Safe D (No near-term D risk)32544933198
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
MI612 (57%)5563Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)284501018396
MA808 (92%)7561Safe D (No near-term D risk)314491045598
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
MI115859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29448929217
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
WA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
WA-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
WA-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CO101 (100%)6679Safe D (No near-term D risk)417501075279
CO202 (78%)5168Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21356109455
NC204 (72%)6563Safe D (No near-term D risk)406581022777
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
CT404 (100%)6362Safe D (No near-term D risk)407521030067
IL505 (57%)6967Safe D (No near-term D risk)27463101058810
MA505 (95%)7570Safe D (No near-term D risk)335591053709
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
GA606 (54%)5238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)335571016096
WA707 (96%)8086Safe D (No near-term D risk)3666310937410
MD808 (75%)6062Safe D (No near-term D risk)396541023187
VA808 (91%)7077Safe D (No near-term D risk)4886410852010
IL909 (69%)7070Safe D (No near-term D risk)3865310833210
NY107187Safe D (No near-term D risk)50859106661910
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
CA1112 (92%)7088Safe D (No near-term D risk)55863102659710
NJ1111 (77%)5557Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)366561030187
VA1111 (68%)6469Safe D (No near-term D risk)498661040918
NY1212 (60%)7086Safe D (No near-term D risk)34579Err102616Err
CA1618 (69%)6676Safe D (No near-term D risk)548611054409
TX245240Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)355511038578
CA3633 (65%)6872Safe D (No near-term D risk)42764101037710
TX375376Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)457581044578
CA5052 (54%)6464Safe D (No near-term D risk)427581056729
WA-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM101 (74%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)51837716726
NY303 (64%)6553Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)427491067139
NJ606 (89%)6360Safe D (No near-term D risk)55840851049
WA909 (84%)7771Safe D (No near-term D risk)56839849829
CA1011 (61%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)498531031098
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
CA195469Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)48844923037
TX2222 (75%)4939Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)55843913625
CA2424 (85%)5662Safe D (No near-term D risk)46737724967
CA2626 (80%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)54835731168
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
CA4045 (64%)6147Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)488491043908
CA4748 (63%)6454Safe D (No near-term D risk)477561062159
CA5153 (51%)6462Safe D (No near-term D risk)51843963839
WI-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
PA202 (96%)7275Safe D (No near-term D risk)5992531535510
WI404 (88%)7175Safe D (No near-term D risk)53831670339
GA707 (58%)6659Safe D (No near-term D risk)67940827987
IN707 (74%)6470Safe D (No near-term D risk)50833632688
MA707 (97%)8283Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884791993210
TX76364Safe D (No near-term D risk)709481074919
FL106065Safe D (No near-term D risk)61934739668
CA1213 (100%)7291Safe D (No near-term D risk)65951101170310
NC1212 (72%)6764Safe D (No near-term D risk)56837720387
NY1616 (75%)7272Safe D (No near-term D risk)5884591010710
FL2523 (78%)5763Safe D (No near-term D risk)66937848809
TX326165Safe D (No near-term D risk)64937764189
AL-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
AL-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
AL-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
AL-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
AL-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
AL-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CT101 (97%)5962Safe D (No near-term D risk)39637720287
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
CT303 (96%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)35637825077
NJ303 (56%)5155Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)34542915586
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
FL504 (86%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33541818716
PA505 (90%)6866Safe D (No near-term D risk)38640852329
TN55144Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)28445910305
AL606 (90%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943785933
VA75452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)46735710365
GA1111 (88%)4839Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)36640814686
NC1302 (59%)5451Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3863577374
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
FL2221 (92%)5560Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45735742568
FL2322 (89%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)42742948649
NY2525 (94%)5859Safe D (No near-term D risk)29439821717
AR-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
AR-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
AR-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
AZ-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
AZ-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
CA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
CA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
CA-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
CO-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
CO-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
FL-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
FL-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
FL-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
FL-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
FL-18
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
FL-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
FL-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
FL-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
FL-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
GA-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
GA-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
GA-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
GA-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
GA-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
GA-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
GA-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
ID-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
ID-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
IL-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
IN-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
IN-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
IN-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
IN-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IN-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
KS-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
KS-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
KY-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
KY-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
KY-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
KY-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
MI-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
MI-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MI-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
MI-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MN-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MO-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
MO-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MO-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
MO-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
MO-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
MS-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
MS-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
GA1212 (85%)4443Safe R (No near-term D hope)4572222632
MS-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
MT-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
NC-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NC-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
NC-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
NC-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NC-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
FL808 (100%)4340Safe R (No near-term D hope)25331615806
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
NE-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
NV-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
NY-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
NY-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
NY-24
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH-12
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
OH-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OH-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
OK-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
OK-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
OK-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
PA707 (90%)5051Toss-up (Down to the Wire)27430516926
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
OK-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
OK-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
OR-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
PA-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
PA-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
PA-15
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
PA-16
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
PA-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
SC-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
GA909 (68%)3228Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252844133
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
OH155245Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)23331614426
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
SC-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
SC-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
MS303 (91%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862631601
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
TN-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
TN-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MA101 (91%)5457Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2743159084
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
WI101 (85%)5249Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22328411745
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
KS202 (73%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742642952
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
MO303 (58%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)1423365183
IN404 (89%)4236Safe R (No near-term D hope)1723054283
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
OH135352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21331618906
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
NY194351Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)1823162862
NY2224 (60%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21332610795
TN-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
TN-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
TN-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
TN-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
MD101 (60%)4845Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3043576544
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
PA1218 (86%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)24338831478
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
FL2118 (98%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)32533617236
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
TN-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AR101 (91%)3530Safe R (No near-term D hope)2431711011
SC303 (95%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2642532452
AR404 (86%)3633Safe R (No near-term D hope)3041811041
TN404 (83%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232322802
NC505 (83%)4140Safe R (No near-term D hope)2432533352
FL606 (63%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532226474
TN606 (72%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022533442
MI805 (80%)4852Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2432328324
NC84333Safe R (No near-term D hope)2742433652
OH808 (64%)5037Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23329512805
TN808 (82%)3631Safe R (No near-term D hope)2532642011
OH905 (50%)4950Toss-up (Down to the Wire)22325310595
MI1009 (66%)5651Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)24328538848
NC1010 (56%)4131Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132223672
GA1414 (90%)3529Safe R (No near-term D hope)2942124543
IL1717 (71%)4954At-Risk (Moving away from D)2842439595
TX-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
TX-10
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
NC45768Safe D (No near-term D risk)4474288864
NY404 (84%)6857Safe D (No near-term D risk)478429818910
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NJ1212 (87%)6065Safe D (No near-term D risk)568481029287
FL1414 (67%)5760Safe D (No near-term D risk)51836740418
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
TX-11
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-13
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
OK101 (96%)4438Safe R (No near-term D hope)38631616856
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
TX-14
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
TX-17
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-19
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-21
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
OH101 (69%)6051Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)30444925117
SC101 (91%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2943988944
WA101 (65%)6862Safe D (No near-term D risk)376481035148
NE202 (97%)5848Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)28440825417
TX24836Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47738818876
MD35757Safe D (No near-term D risk)406531019186
OH303 (67%)6969Safe D (No near-term D risk)41743946629
TX303 (76%)4840Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41748918336
CO505 (100%)5841Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31439822677
MN505 (100%)6981Safe D (No near-term D risk)35548965459
NJ505 (78%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)396511026567
CO606 (84%)6559Safe D (No near-term D risk)40742946519
IL1010 (77%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)38645919677
TX103939Safe R (No near-term D hope)4173784763
VA1010 (73%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)447521015286
IL115954Safe D (No near-term D risk)33544920117
NC1412 (50%)6156Safe D (No near-term D risk)40646921847
NY1717 (72%)5955Safe D (No near-term D risk)34547918526
TX2121 (76%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)3864297834
TX2626 (74%)4538Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)40643914626
CA3028 (85%)6777Safe D (No near-term D risk)43748101177610
CA3230 (77%)6572Safe D (No near-term D risk)457501068619
TX385238Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)477491034678
CA4949 (90%)6053Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)39645936078
TX-23
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NM202 (73%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)6792223642
IL36971Safe D (No near-term D risk)578347951210
NM303 (81%)4757At-Risk (Moving away from D)6292431191
AZ703 (73%)5067Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)67920116336
CA706 (56%)6368Safe D (No near-term D risk)65932645278
CA86477Safe D (No near-term D risk)73929540738
CA909 (75%)5755Safe D (No near-term D risk)67919132618
FL909 (71%)5060Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)68929518436
NJ909 (83%)6662Safe D (No near-term D risk)5993261001010
TX1515 (67%)4652Toss-up (Down to the Wire)82102019645
TX1616 (94%)5670Safe D (No near-term D risk)871025332958
TX2020 (84%)5967Safe D (No near-term D risk)801023252249
CA215859Safe D (No near-term D risk)791015129247
CA2221 (57%)5357Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)81109123987
TX2323 (79%)4146Safe R (No near-term D hope)6992743242
FL2625 (78%)5744Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)801025351779
CA2725 (80%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)63929526927
FL2727 (82%)6153Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)8310398935510
FL2826 (92%)5652Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)851029547149
TX2828 (62%)5056Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)811019114245
TX2929 (82%)6172Safe D (No near-term D risk)901011147789
TX3434 (75%)5062Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)901017113735
TX3535 (66%)5573Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)70927426577
CA5251 (69%)6970Safe D (No near-term D risk)8510212860310
TX-25
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NJ202 (90%)4247Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352848914
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
MI302 (50%)5352Toss-up (Down to the Wire)26435719306
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
OK505 (79%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)34535710695
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
FL1616 (80%)4744Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35632619697
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
TX-27
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
TX-31
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
FL707 (62%)4746Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)35634718776
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
FL114242Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763269855
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-36
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-4
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MT100 (100%)4348Safe R (No near-term D hope)1313571281
NE101 (89%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)19234710175
RI101 (99%)6666Safe D (No near-term D risk)32535731488
MT200 (100%)4239Safe R (No near-term D hope)162295831
RI202 (98%)5658Safe D (No near-term D risk)23334715296
AZ409 (69%)5553Toss-up (Down to the Wire)41735754649
TX404 (55%)4235Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763987294
UT404 (83%)4530Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)24331622187
AZ505 (78%)4940Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)30437831378
OR605 (58%)5855Safe D (No near-term D risk)29434619106
WA1010 (93%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)36629523307
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NJ101 (95%)5463Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37632630268
NY202 (73%)6148Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)41730537848
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1212 (92%)4739Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)41732620017
IL145555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37631614876
TX1414 (88%)4435Safe R (No near-term D hope)44724310265
FL154948Toss-up (Down to the Wire)45731520567
TX1717 (54%)4037Safe R (No near-term D hope)4372434673
NY1818 (70%)5452Toss-up (Down to the Wire)3453368364
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
TX254233Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862859004
TX3131 (79%)4137Safe R (No near-term D hope)3763477914
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
TX-8
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
NV101 (52%)5555Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)56823356009
NV303 (64%)5754Safe D (No near-term D risk)53830549079
CA405 (55%)5267Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)45734717526
NV404 (83%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)58819124177
WA404 (95%)4640Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)4372224983
TX505 (61%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)4882128834
CA66358Safe D (No near-term D risk)49829551189
TX64436Safe R (No near-term D hope)5182327494
CO807 (52%)5751Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)44726424737
IL808 (66%)6257Safe D (No near-term D risk)42738836348
TX84435Safe R (No near-term D hope)51829511605
NY1111 (87%)6646Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)4673671950610
TX1111 (75%)4429Safe R (No near-term D hope)5282228924
TX1919 (93%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)4672323933
CA2023 (52%)4835Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)47727413835
CA2308 (85%)4643Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)5681918064
TX2727 (86%)4138Safe R (No near-term D hope)5991916534
TX3636 (73%)4333Safe R (No near-term D hope)4782327554
CA4142 (71%)5347Toss-up (Down to the Wire)52828519637
CA4850 (64%)5241Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)43731618186
UT-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
ME101 (98%)4957At-Risk (Moving away from D)913884033
NH101 (100%)5145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)1113887094
PA101 (93%)5153Toss-up (Down to the Wire)18242916816
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
CT202 (97%)5154Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1923775563
NH202 (98%)4848Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1113783032
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
IA303 (86%)5649Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)1823476383
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
NJ404 (62%)4638Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)18237821417
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
IN505 (75%)4841Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1723889625
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
WI505 (85%)4935Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1213887904
MD606 (89%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)41742910425
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
MI708 (62%)4751Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1823577514
OH716 (65%)4745Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)12136713365
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
MA909 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1523989485
PA1717 (94%)5055Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)16241814876
FL1919 (98%)4537Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)26334718846
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
UT-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
CA101 (73%)3639Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552223322
KS101 (83%)3635Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232841221
UT101 (87%)4034Safe R (No near-term D hope)20235711875
AZ201 (66%)3245Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062321231
NV202 (98%)3643Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352745313
UT202 (87%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2743058894
WA202 (70%)5659Safe D (No near-term D risk)27433612965
AR303 (94%)4036Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842955083
CA304 (57%)4446Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843886884
CO303 (96%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3042951511
OK303 (74%)2728Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552111831
KS404 (99%)4539Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)2743056363
MI406 (65%)4847Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2233157294
OK404 (97%)3434Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252644573
OR404 (91%)4656At-Risk (Moving away from D)1923165913
CA54442Safe R (No near-term D hope)3762849214
OR55453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)19235711725
KY606 (93%)4548Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1923478314
MN606 (90%)4742Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1313365993
WA606 (92%)5157Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)2533169054
AZ808 (67%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)31531634158
WA808 (76%)5251Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2743987084
AZ94036Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862017154
PA1010 (96%)4748Toss-up (Down to the Wire)25332613545
TX1313 (83%)3526Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862433892
UT-3
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AZ106 (74%)5048Toss-up (Down to the Wire)264491031348
NY101 (68%)5648Toss-up (Highly Winnable by D)26345919897
OR101 (82%)6169Safe D (No near-term D risk)31445921147
CA202 (91%)4574At-Risk (Moving away from D)3254187424
MA202 (87%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)26443910755
MN202 (92%)5353Toss-up (Down to the Wire)21341812575
MO202 (71%)4945Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)14247914526
WI202 (100%)5171Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)1824497934
KS303 (92%)5350Toss-up (Down to the Wire)223501017116
MA303 (96%)6258Safe D (No near-term D risk)36638819056
OR303 (96%)6774Safe D (No near-term D risk)32538836038
UT303 (83%)4032Safe R (No near-term D hope)20339810515
CO404 (66%)4437Safe R (No near-term D hope)2234393943
MA404 (89%)6259Safe D (No near-term D risk)19246920447
PA404 (81%)5260Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)21346918066
CT505 (99%)5453Toss-up (Down to the Wire)33537712285
AZ602 (69%)4248Safe R (No near-term D hope)3353678214
IL66454Safe D (No near-term D risk)25343941178
MA606 (96%)6657Safe D (No near-term D risk)20347923477
PA606 (98%)5256Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)27446915016
CO707 (59%)5254Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)23344914676
NJ707 (72%)4648Toss-up (Down to the Wire)274511010715
NY2020 (88%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)24340815596
VA-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
AL101 (100%)4339Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452533933
FL101 (100%)4231Safe R (No near-term D hope)2842959605
GA101 (97%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)4062533692
IN101 (97%)5458Becoming At-Risk (More Balanced than Advertised)37624315146
MS101 (100%)3336Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352221861
TX101 (72%)3726Safe R (No near-term D hope)3662122422
AL202 (93%)4337Safe R (No near-term D hope)3862532101
AR202 (97%)5142Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)3143165643
FL202 (64%)4145Safe R (No near-term D hope)3552853782
MD202 (55%)6555Safe D (No near-term D risk)44731646448
SC202 (96%)4943Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3663366424
VA202 (65%)5449Toss-up (Down to the Wire)39634713635
AL303 (96%)3936Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252111951
FL303 (55%)3843Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252643462
GA303 (88%)3733Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352743322
KY303 (100%)6161Safe D (No near-term D risk)34532629797
NC303 (77%)4338Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352322361
FL45145Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)45724312035
MS404 (100%)3232Safe R (No near-term D hope)3252223012
SC404 (97%)5039Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)33533610415
AL505 (100%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)2943264243
MO505 (84%)6063Safe D (No near-term D risk)38632625747
SC505 (95%)3941Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743802
VA505 (66%)4245Safe R (No near-term D hope)3043152151
NC65756Safe D (No near-term D risk)4573169395
NC707 (64%)4644Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)3552744033
SC707 (99%)4041Safe R (No near-term D hope)3352123122
TN707 (55%)4243Safe R (No near-term D hope)2843054503
GA808 (81%)3734Safe R (No near-term D hope)3962121961
NC95147Toss-up (Down to the Wire)4172644733
GA1010 (71%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)3452743422
OH1010 (90%)5446Flippable (Strongly D-leaning)26430517256
IL1313 (54%)5656Safe D (No near-term D risk)32530513595
FL183938Safe R (No near-term D hope)4071815253
NY2626 (89%)5960Safe D (No near-term D risk)31533636948
VA-6
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY202 (87%)3637Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422122692
ME202 (94%)4544Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)81264991
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
IN303 (96%)4136Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722324013
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
TN303 (90%)3834Safe R (No near-term D hope)2022534613
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
AL404 (94%)2923Safe R (No near-term D hope)1821811401
MO404 (77%)3231Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522321761
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
OH53938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422324433
MO606 (83%)3233Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531851
VA606 (75%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1922634003
MN808 (86%)3547Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112631061
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
FL1212 (55%)3736Safe R (No near-term D hope)2232129945
OH123636Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012533332
OH1414 (61%)4345Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212636934
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
VA-9
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
WA-5
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
MN101 (90%)3748Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422952141
ID202 (96%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2023153812
IN202 (93%)4241Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132325403
TN202 (95%)4135Safe R (No near-term D hope)1623167004
WA303 (98%)5047Toss-up (Down to the Wire)2232748514
OH43732Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312644003
WA505 (97%)4144Safe R (No near-term D hope)1923054753
IN606 (50%)4335Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622747194
WI606 (97%)4642Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1112744403
MO707 (99%)3829Safe R (No near-term D hope)1522534363
PA808 (92%)4151Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)2232637154
WI808 (100%)4543Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1312744333
PA1111 (97%)4040Safe R (No near-term D hope)1622848884
FL1313 (70%)5046Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)23331638178
FL1717 (61%)4141Safe R (No near-term D hope)21330514265
WI-7
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
IA102 (87%)4949Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1422953242
ID101 (100%)3630Safe R (No near-term D hope)1722743072
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
MI101 (86%)3741Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253871
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
IA201 (86%)4947Toss-up (Down to the Wire)1212742742
MI23737Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112111471
OH202 (54%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)811912382
OK202 (91%)2527Safe R (No near-term D hope)355191961
OR202 (92%)3738Safe R (No near-term D hope)2132221231
NE303 (92%)3324Safe R (No near-term D hope)162232481
WI303 (98%)4150Toss-up (Highly vulnerable for D)912741951
IA404 (80%)4637Becoming Flippable (More balanced than Advertised)1522531891
KY404 (94%)3836Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112744403
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
OH606 (55%)3940Safe R (No near-term D hope)1311914563
MN707 (87%)3537Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253771
WI707 (98%)4042Safe R (No near-term D hope)91253911
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
MO808 (84%)3126Safe R (No near-term D hope)1211811621
IN909 (70%)3938Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212533492
MI910 (71%)4237Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012744753
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
NC1111 (79%)3645Safe R (No near-term D hope)1523162261
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
PA1515 (59%)2734Safe R (No near-term D hope)912431771
IL163738Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312852562
PA1616 (90%)3542Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112845343
NY2121 (68%)4143Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212531501
NY2323 (58%)4439Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012843832
NY244140Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112432532
WV-1
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441
WV-2
StateDistrictWasDemographic Model (Blue Ripple)Historical Model (Dave's Redistricting)BR Stance%Non-WhiteNW Quantile%Grad-WhiteGOW QuantilePop/SqMileDensity Quantile
KY101 (87%)3435Safe R (No near-term D hope)1422011421
TN101 (94%)3023Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012112902
WV103 (64%)3032Safe R (No near-term D hope)911911511
WV201 (67%)3432Safe R (No near-term D hope)1012222392
KY505 (93%)3031Safe R (No near-term D hope)611411001
MI507 (65%)4039Safe R (No near-term D hope)1322322962
IN808 (95%)3839Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112112712
PA909 (65%)3034Safe R (No near-term D hope)1112123372
VA909 (81%)3230Safe R (No near-term D hope)1312011491
IL1212 (53%)3332Safe R (No near-term D hope)1212321311
PA1313 (74%)3030Safe R (No near-term D hope)912112792
PA1414 (76%)3139Safe R (No near-term D hope)812533702
IL153232Safe R (No near-term D hope)912321441

Want to read more from Blue Ripple? Visit our website, sign up for email updates, and follow us on Twitter and FaceBook. Folks interested in our data and modeling efforts should also check out our Github page.